Who the markets say the Democrats nominate in 2028
Kalshi and Polymarket both list the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with a contract for each candidate. At 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026, Kalshi priced Jon Ossoff at 16¢ and Polymarket priced Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17.9¢.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee: prices at 11:38 UTC
Kalshi: 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, closes 7 Nov 2028. Polymarket: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028, closes 8 Nov 2028.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14¢ | 17.9¢ | 3.8 pts |
| Jon Ossoff | 16¢ | 15.1¢ | 1 pts |
| Gavin Newsom | 14¢ | 15.5¢ | 1.4 pts |
| Kamala Harris | 7.7¢ | 6.5¢ | 1.2 pts |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.6¢ | 5.6¢ | 1 pts |
| Andy Beshear | 5.2¢ | 3.4¢ | 1.8 pts |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1¢ | 5.1¢ | 0 pts |
| Mark Kelly | 3.8¢ | 2.5¢ | 1.3 pts |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.6¢ | 1.8¢ | 0.8 pts |
| James Talarico | 2.1¢ | 2.5¢ | 0.3 pts |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2.3¢ | 1.4¢ | 1 pts |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.5¢ | 2.3¢ | 1.8 pts |
How each venue resolves it
Kalshi states the rule on each contract. For Jon Ossoff:
If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket's market description:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
A price on one venue is a price on its own rule. Where the wording differs, a gap between the two prices can be the rule, not a mistake.
What a trade costs
Both venues charge a fee that is largest near 50¢ and shrinks toward 1¢ and 99¢. The exact rates, by category, are on our Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees pages, and whether you can trade at all depends on your state.
About these prices
Prices are the last traded price on Kalshi's public market API and the displayed price on Polymarket's Gamma API, both read at 11:38 UTC on 11 October 2026. They move all day; open the market on the venue for the price now.
